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- united states - What are the differences between these groups polled by . . .
Polling by FiveThirtyEight categorizes polls by these groups: A = ADULTS RV = REGISTERED VOTERS V = VOTERS LV = LIKELY VOTERS Is it correct that quot;LV quot; is a proper subset of quot;RV quo
- united states - Why has FiveThirtyEight stopped updating the . . .
I’ve been using FiveThirtyEight presidential election polling averages to keep track of the election predictions However, since Joe Biden dropped out they have stopped updating the polling average
- Correlation between 538s urbanization index and vote margin 2020?
3 538 did an article about the urban-rural divide It said that in 2016, the correlation between urbanization and Dem voting was 0 69 in 2016 and 0 55 in 2012 (There was one big exception: Vermont ) What was the correlation between the preliminary results and the urbanization index in the 2020 presidential election?
- united states - Why do election predictions by FiveThirtyEight and . . .
538 pays a lot of attention to the quality, decay, and noise from polling data Silver uses Pollster rankings, trend line adjustments, and poll sample adjustments to enhance the performance of a run-of-the-mill polling average
- Why was the Economist model so sure Trump was going to lose compared to . . .
This means that 538 assigns a small probability to some very unlikely outcomes (Trump wins California, or Biden wins Utah) The Economist model doesn't It uses a normal distribution which has thinner tails, and so treats these kind of results as essentially impossible
- united states - Why were there only 531 electoral votes in the US . . .
I just read this Wikipedia article It says Trump won with a 304 to 227 for electoral votes That's 304 + 227 = 531 votes But the total number should be 538 Where did the 7 votes go?
- Is there a correlation between a Presidents approval rating on . . .
I was looking 538's historical approval ratings and I noticed that on the last day of a two-term president's last term, the approval rating was about twice the popular vote margin nationwide This
- What determines the number of electors in each state of the US
7 Mostly the (Decennial) Census Generally, the electoral formula is Electoral Votes = Representatives + Senators Each state has two Senators, so that's 100 of the 538 total Electoral Votes Washington DC gets three electors; while they technically have shadow congresspeople, those don't get to vote in the House or Senate
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