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Start here - Early Retirement Now Ask Big Ern: A Safe Withdrawal Rate Case Study for “Rene”: No need to worry about the recent layoff: You are more than ready for early retirement! Ask Big Ern: A Safe Withdrawal Rate Case Study for “Mrs Greece”: More than ready to retire due to large portfolio size and moderate living expenses, especially if the husband keeps working!
Early Retirement Now - You cant afford not to retire early! December 10, 2025 – Welcome to another post on the ERN blog This is the third installment in the “How to Lie with Personal Finance” series (please also check out Part s 1 and 2) As always, this is not an instruction manual for deception, but precisely the opposite: it points out the misunderstandings circulating in personal finance Think of it as an homage to the classic book “How
About - Early Retirement Now Welcome! I hope I don’t disappoint anyone by revealing that my real name isn’t Ern Or Big Ern But I am a big guy, at 6’6″ (just under 2 meters), which explains why the name “Big Ern” stuck! My real name is Karsten I am originally from Germany but came to the U S in 1995 Initially … Continue reading About
Options Trading - Early Retirement Now The strategy in a nutshell I’ve written about this strategy in previous posts, most recently in Part 10, Part 11, and Part 13 But briefly, here is what I’m doing: Why does this work? Implied Volatility (normally) exceeds Realized Volatility Of course, the central limit theorem is useful only if the strategy has a positive … Continue reading Options Trading
The Ultimate Guide to Safe Withdrawal Rates – Part 1: Introduction Welcome! You probably landed on this page because you clicked someone’s link to my Safe Withdrawal Rate Series Thanks for stopping by! This series has now grown to 30+ parts and if you are looking for a less technical summary before jumping into the nitty-gritty details, I recommend you check out the new “landing page” to my … Continue reading The Ultimate Guide to Safe Withdrawal
Safe Withdrawal Rates Archives - Early Retirement Now Unfortunately, the actuarially correct way is more complicated But Big ERN to the rescue, I have another Google Sheet to help with that, and I share that free tool with you Let’s take a look… Continue reading “Evaluating Annuities, Pensions, and Social Security – SWR Series Part 56”
Building a Better CAPE Ratio - Early Retirement Now CAPE ERN 2 is the new adjusted CAPE taking into account corporate tax rates and earnings retention ratios I also throw in the 12-month trailing PE Ratios Here’s the same chart as in the blog post header again, the CAPE time series since 1925 The adjustments didn’t make a large difference in the 1920s and 1930s
The Ultimate Guide to Safe Withdrawal Rates – Part 19: Equity . . . That’s where the Big ERN simulation engine comes in handy! Simulation assumptions: Monthly data from January 1871 to July 2017 A 60-year retirement horizon Retirement dates from January 1871 to December 2015 (with extrapolations using conservative return forecasts for bonds and stocks beyond July 2017)
An Updated Google Sheet DIY Withdrawal Rate Toolbox (SWR Series Part 28) Since I first published Part 7 of the SWR Series with the accompanying Google Sheet in early 2017, I’ve made several changes and enhancements Sometimes without much explanation or documentation So, it would be nice to do a quick update and itemize the changes since then Whether this is the first time using the toolbox … Continue reading An Updated Google Sheet DIY Withdrawal Rate