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First Quarter Update – 2023 Outlook - widget. hanlon. com Much has changed in the first 80 days of 2023 Fed funds rate hike expectations briefly rose to 5 75-6 0% as the possible terminal rate, and then in March the adverse effect of the rate hikes hit regional banks Three banks had to be taken over by regulators, and an investing chill went through the entire banking sector, increasing the odds of a potentially non-shallow US recession The Fed
The Road to 2% Inflation - widget. hanlon. com Up until the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation reading, the Fed had been on quite a winning streak Annualized CPI had declined for 12 consecutive monthly readings, evidence that while prices for goods and services were still increasing, the pace of price inflation was moderating and moving back towards the Fed’s 2% target Jerome Powell cautioned, however, that the path forward
The Fed vs the Markets The Fed vs the Markets When Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke on December 1st in his final public comments before the blackout period leading up to the Fed’s December 14th policy meeting, the tone was hawkish Powell stated, “It would be premature to conclude with confidence that we have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance, or to speculate on when policy might ease We are
AC 1 0 The Fed’s Two-Pronged Monetary Blitzkrieg, Pt 1 – Surveying The Da Quantitative Tightening • Starting in November 2021, the Fed shifted from buying vast quantities of government bonds relentlessly – one might say almost indiscriminately – injecting billions and ultimately trillions of dollars into the economy (so-called “quantitative easing” or QE), to at first slowing (“tapering”), then halting, and finally reversing the process, by allowing
Together, we empower our partners to achieve more! - Hanlon Together, we empower our partners to achieve more! Our goal at Hanlon is to collaborate with our partners, helping them leverage technology and middle office giving them a broader and stronger foundation from which to grow RIAs and advisors partner with us to grow their revenue while providing greater service to their clients We provide our partners with a collaborative approach to case
APRL Collateral Damage From Fed Policy (3) – Money Market Funds, A . . . Collateral Damage From Fed Policy (3) – Money Market Funds, A ‘Powder Keg’? By Dr George Calhoun damage on several sectors of the economy In my previous Vestbridge Advisors, Inc Advisory Board Member column, I examined the impact of the rate storm on the housing Executive Director of the Hanlon Financial Systems Center market Here the focus is on another multi-trillion dollar segment
US Households’ Balance Sheets are Strong, But What About the Government’s? US Households’ Balance Sheets are Strong, But What About the Government’s? Heading into 2023, there was near-unanimous consensus from Wall Street that the US economy would veer into a recession Yet throughout the year, US GDP has only strengthened thanks to persistently strong consumer spending Consumers spent freely coming off the pandemic, as expected What has surprised economists and
10-Year Break-out or Fake-out? - widget. hanlon. com This rosy view is only one explanation The actual cause of the 10-Year’s upward move is likely attributable to a combination of factors, not all positive A more concerning catalyst for higher long-term rates, which was the subject of our recent commentary, is the unsustainable level of US government spending The repeated debt ceiling showdowns and recent turmoil in the House of
UAW Strikes – Pumping the Economic Brakes or Hitting the Gas? On September 15, more than 12,000 autoworkers from the United Autoworkers Union (UAW) walked off the job as contract negotiations with Ford, GM, and Jeep-maker Stellantis have yet to produce a new contract for the 146,000 active union members at the three companies UAW workers’ pay has increased just 6% since 2019, while the union cites a 40% jump in automotive CEO compensation from the Big