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The Beef The comprehensive cutout includes every load of beef sold, whether formula, spot, or out front The price tends to lag the spot cutout on the way up or the way down, due to the way formula sales are calculated
Back At It – The Beef Last week’s surge in cattle prices coupled with a somewhat sluggish boxed beef market is putting serious pressure on packer margins Normally, packers crank up slaughter seasonally in April Not true in 2025 with a 586k, 564k, 576k thus far
June 2025 – Page 6 – The Beef It will be interesting, given packer red ink and sluggish beef demand, to see what this first full production week of June yields for slaughter Estimates range from 575k to 590k head, well below any year from 2016 through 2024
Creeping – The Beef Boxed beef prices finally caught fire this week, after this month’s curtailed production The past three weeks total beef production has been below 2023 and 2024 despite 20 to 30 pounds of extra carcass weight This is a good indication of just how tepid beef demand has been of late
Blowing Up – The Beef Though the USDA’s weekly comprehensive boxed beef reports the past two weeks have shown excellent spot and formula sales volume For the week, packers have purchased a little over 7k head mostly in the south and mostly at $201, steady with last week
Unstoppable – The Beef Indeed, boxed beef prices have rallied significantly this week, up over $8 cwt from a week ago this morning, printing at $321 99 The rib is the stand out and has rallied more than seasonally normal and it can take some of the credit for the surge in choice cutout values
Massive Recovery – The Beef Boxed beef values bottomed two weeks ago, choice averaging $312 79 that week The smaller than a year ago slaughter pace for eight consecutive weeks has been enough of a reduction to help boxes bottom along with the seasonal
Giant Cash Trade Volume – The Beef Very surprisingly beef 50s area struggling, an ingredient in all ground beef and normally highly sensitive to throughput, 50s lost $10 bucks last week Packers have no choice but to keep production schedules restricted, as they endure wave after wave of red ink
Pull Back and Wait – The Beef Retail beef prices last month surged to the highest point ever, making even a bull wonder how high is too high The hope is that choice boxed beef prices will rally to $350 in May or June, making a new high for the year and challenging the post-covid high made in 2021 just over $347
The Beef – Page 2 As it is, the negotiated cattle price and the boxed beef prices have yet to down tick, though there are high expectations the seasonal will win out shortly and lower prices will ensue as the calendar turns to July in two weeks